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Estimated Delivery Model

Estimated Delivery Model

Learn how to build Estimate Delivery model for the food delivery app.

3. Model

Feature Category

Feature engineering

Description

Order features

Subtotal, Cuisine

Basic characteristics of the order itself

Item features

Price, Type

Information about individual items within the order

Order type

Group, Catering

Indicates whether the order is a group order, catering request, etc.

Merchant details

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Merchant-specific metadata (e.g., ratings, popularity, etc.)

Store ID

Store Embedding

Dense representation capturing latent store characteristics

Realtime feature

Number of orders, Number of dashers, Traffic, Travel estimates

Live system load and conditions

Time feature

Time of day (lunch/dinner), Day of week, Weekend, Holiday

Temporal context around the delivery

Historical aggregates

Past X weeks average delivery time for: Store / City / Market / Time of Day

Rolling historical statistics to capture service performance trends

Similarity

Average parking times, Variance in historical times

Metrics from similar past deliveries to estimate expected behavior

Latitude / Longitude

Measure estimated driving time between restaurant and consumer

Spatial/geographic context used to estimate delivery time

Training data

  • We can use historical deliveries for the last 6 months as training data. Historical deliveries include delivery data and actual total delivery time, store data, order data, customers data, location, and parking data.

Model

Gradient Boosted Decision Tree

  • Gradient Boosted Decision Tree sample
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  • How do Gradient Boosted Decision Trees work?

    • Step 1: Given historical delivery, the model first calculates the average delivery time. This value will be used as a baseline.

    • Step 2: The model measures the residual (error) between prediction and actual delivery time.

      Error=ActualDeliveryTimeāˆ’EstimatedDeliveryTimeError = Actual Delivery Time - Estimated Delivery Time ...